What is worse, only being told what you already believe to be true or only being told what someone else believes to be true?
It seems like a completely free media will do the first. People who are not interested in challenging themselves will choose to listen to reports that interpret the facts of a situation in a way that supports their beliefs. Liberals only read the New York Times. Conservatives only listen to Fox News.
What could be done to prevent that from happening? Place some restrictions on the ownership of the media? Consolidate the media into a government owned monopoly? It doesn't seem like any set of rules could eliminate the problems of the first situation without bringing about the problems of the second.
I suppose people who aren't interested in uncovering the truth will always be a problem. There's no reliable way to enforce the Truth because it is difficult to discover what is true in the first place. Does the marketplace of idea encourage people to find the Truth? Or do some people refuse to buy knowledge because they have too low of a demand for it?
Is the Truth always even valuable to have? Rephrasing, is it harmful to not know the Truth? Let's say communism is right. It would be better for everyone to if we were all oraginized under a communist system of production. Thinking about it in a natural selection sense, would a communist survive any better currently? It seems likely that they wouldn't.
Can we advocate a self-less pursuit of the Truth where all people would spend all of their time and energy attempting to figure out the world? Where would we even start- a scientific or religious approach?
Since many of these questions lack universally appealing answers, I think it is impossible to advocate anything but a free exchange of ideas. Even if rhetoric can sway more people than rational argument. Even if the incentive to find the Truth may not always exists in sufficient enough quantities to always find it. We merely must accept the fact that things aren't perfect, but they also can't get better.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
"It's the Economy, Stupid"
According to CNN, the economy is the most important issue to voters. I think is absolutely false. The only people that the economy matters to is economists. At best, the economy is an abstraction that carries some vague connotations about wealth and the unemployment rate. Here is my claim, people don't care about the unemployment rate, they just care if they are employed. People don't care about average wages, they only care that they are getting richer*.
Perhaps, a decent definition of the economy is how easily are people able to produce and trade. When the news trots out statistics about the interest rate, GDP, and the wage gap those are all crude measures of something immeasurable. Any of these statistics can change wildly from month to month. They don't give a clear picture of how things are going.
The economy is like poker. You've got your cards and you have all the cards you need for a flush except one. Your last chance if for it to come up on the river. Mathematically, there is about 1 in 6 chance that the card you'll need comes up. Based on that probability, your opponent's bet, and the amount of the pot, there is a best strategy. Either fold when you get into that situation or go for it. Let's say the best strategy is to not bet, but you do anyway and win. That's great. You won that round, but playing as if you expect that card you need on the river isn't going to work out for you in the long run.
The same thing is true about the economy. Changing policy based on monthly or quarterly changes in economic statistics is a bad strategy. You may take advantage of something randomly, but as time goes on, that policy is going to cost more than it's worth and its going to make some better off by making many more worse off.
I can't help but feel like political candidates are always looking to do things now at the expense of tomorrow and for some at the expense of everyone else. Why get rid of the gas tax now? It won't do anything in the long run except have people drive farther in less efficient cars. Why increase taxes on the wealthy? It will just discourage investment.
Sigh.
*Actually, people probably do care about average wages. They would be happy to know they are above average, so a falling average wage could make some people happier.
Perhaps, a decent definition of the economy is how easily are people able to produce and trade. When the news trots out statistics about the interest rate, GDP, and the wage gap those are all crude measures of something immeasurable. Any of these statistics can change wildly from month to month. They don't give a clear picture of how things are going.
The economy is like poker. You've got your cards and you have all the cards you need for a flush except one. Your last chance if for it to come up on the river. Mathematically, there is about 1 in 6 chance that the card you'll need comes up. Based on that probability, your opponent's bet, and the amount of the pot, there is a best strategy. Either fold when you get into that situation or go for it. Let's say the best strategy is to not bet, but you do anyway and win. That's great. You won that round, but playing as if you expect that card you need on the river isn't going to work out for you in the long run.
The same thing is true about the economy. Changing policy based on monthly or quarterly changes in economic statistics is a bad strategy. You may take advantage of something randomly, but as time goes on, that policy is going to cost more than it's worth and its going to make some better off by making many more worse off.
I can't help but feel like political candidates are always looking to do things now at the expense of tomorrow and for some at the expense of everyone else. Why get rid of the gas tax now? It won't do anything in the long run except have people drive farther in less efficient cars. Why increase taxes on the wealthy? It will just discourage investment.
Sigh.
*Actually, people probably do care about average wages. They would be happy to know they are above average, so a falling average wage could make some people happier.
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